Alaska Air Group Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

ALK Stock  USD 44.44  1.72  4.03%   
Alaska Air's odds of distress is under 23% at the moment. It has slight probability of undergoing some form of financial distress in the near future. Odds of financial distress prediction helps decision makers evaluate Alaska Air's chance of financial distress in relation to its going-concern outlook and evaluation. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Alaska balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Alaska Air Piotroski F Score and Alaska Air Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Market Cap is expected to rise to about 2.9 B this year. Enterprise Value is expected to rise to about 3.7 B this year

Alaska Air Group Company odds of financial distress Analysis

Alaska Air's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Alaska Air Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Less than 23%  
Most of Alaska Air's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Alaska Air Group is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Alaska Air probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Alaska Air odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Alaska Air Group financial health.
Is Alaska Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.484
Earnings Share
1.83
Revenue Per Share
81.853
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0355
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Alaska Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Alaska Air is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Alaska Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Alaska Air's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Alaska Air's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Alaska Air's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Alaska Air Group has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 23.0%. This is 45.98% lower than that of the Passenger Airlines sector and 46.15% lower than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 42.25% higher than that of the company.

Alaska Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Alaska Air's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Alaska Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alaska Air by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Alaska Air is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Alaska Air Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Return On Assets0.0592(0.0931)0.03430.0040610.01480.0203
Asset Turnover0.760.680.250.440.660.92
Gross Profit Margin0.23(0.12)0.220.170.190.18
Net Debt3.0B3.7B3.6B3.5B4.1B4.3B
Total Current Liabilities3.2B4.3B4.0B4.5B4.5B4.7B
Non Current Liabilities Total5.5B6.8B6.2B6.0B7.3B7.6B
Total Assets13.0B14.0B14.0B14.3B15.8B16.6B
Total Current Assets2.0B4.0B3.9B3.0B2.7B1.4B
Total Cash From Operating Activities1.2B1.7B(234M)1.4B1.1B612.4M

Alaska Fundamentals

About Alaska Air Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Alaska Air Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Alaska Air using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Alaska Air Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alaska Air's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alaska. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Alaska Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alaska. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alaska can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alaska Air Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Alaska Air's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Alaska Air's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Alaska Air's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Alaska Air.

Alaska Air Implied Volatility

    
  65.91  
Alaska Air's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alaska Air Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alaska Air's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alaska Air stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alaska Air's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alaska Air in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alaska Air's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alaska Air options trading.

Pair Trading with Alaska Air

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alaska Air position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alaska Air will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alaska Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alaska Air could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alaska Air when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alaska Air - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alaska Air Group to buy it.
The correlation of Alaska Air is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alaska Air moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alaska Air Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alaska Air can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:
Check out Alaska Air Piotroski F Score and Alaska Air Altman Z Score analysis.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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Is Alaska Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.484
Earnings Share
1.83
Revenue Per Share
81.853
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0355
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.