Century Aluminum Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

CENX Stock  USD 15.20  0.42  2.84%   
Century Aluminum's risk of distress is under 35% at this time. It has slight likelihood of undergoing some form of financial straits in the near future. Chance Of Bankruptcy shows the probability of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Century balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Century Aluminum Piotroski F Score and Century Aluminum Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.
  

Century Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Century Aluminum's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Century Aluminum Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Less than 35%  
Most of Century Aluminum's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Century Aluminum is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Century Aluminum probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Century Aluminum odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Century Aluminum financial health.
Is Century Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Century Aluminum. If investors know Century will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Century Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Century Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Century that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Century Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Century Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Century Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Century Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Century Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Century Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Century Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Century Aluminum has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 35.0%. This is 21.06% lower than that of the Metals & Mining sector and 12.61% lower than that of the Materials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 12.13% higher than that of the company.

Century Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Century Aluminum's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Century Aluminum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Century Aluminum by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Century Aluminum is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Century Fundamentals

About Century Aluminum Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Century Aluminum's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Century Aluminum using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Century Aluminum based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Century Aluminum Company, together with its subsidiaries, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois. Century Aluminum operates under Aluminum classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2512 people.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Century Aluminum in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Century Aluminum's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Century Aluminum options trading.

Pair Trading with Century Aluminum

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Century Aluminum position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Century Aluminum will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Century Stock

  0.8AA Alcoa Corp Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr

Moving against Century Stock

  0.44X United States Steel Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Century Aluminum could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Century Aluminum when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Century Aluminum - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Century Aluminum to buy it.
The correlation of Century Aluminum is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Century Aluminum moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Century Aluminum moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Century Aluminum can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Century Aluminum offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Century Aluminum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Century Aluminum Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Century Aluminum Stock:
Check out Century Aluminum Piotroski F Score and Century Aluminum Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy Century Stock please use our How to Invest in Century Aluminum guide.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Century Stock analysis

When running Century Aluminum's price analysis, check to measure Century Aluminum's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Century Aluminum is operating at the current time. Most of Century Aluminum's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Century Aluminum's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Century Aluminum's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Century Aluminum to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Century Aluminum's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Century Aluminum. If investors know Century will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Century Aluminum listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Century Aluminum is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Century that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Century Aluminum's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Century Aluminum's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Century Aluminum's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Century Aluminum's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Century Aluminum's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Century Aluminum is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Century Aluminum's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.