Probability Of Bankruptcy AnalysisFor stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
Distress Driver Correlations
About Probability Of BankruptcyProbability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12 or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty to meet its current financial obligations towards its creditors or to deliver on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions on a daily bases from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns including short term and long term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenues patterns, R&D expenses and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.Compare to competition
Based on latest financial disclosure Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 49.0%. This is much higher than that of the Financial Services sector, and significantly higher than that of Banking industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is over 1000% lower than the firm.