CAC 40 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

FCHI -- France Index  

 4,737  48.33  1.03%

CAC 40 Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CAC 40 historical stock prices and determine the direction of CAC 40 future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CAC 40 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out fundamental analysis of CAC 40 to check your projections.

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A naive forecasting model for CAC 40 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CAC 40 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CAC 40 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of CAC 40 on the next trading day is expected to be  4,646  with a mean absolute deviation of  108.78 , mean absolute percentage error of  19,002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  6,635 

CAC 40 Index Forecast Pattern

CAC 40 Forecasted Value

Market Value
28th of May 2020
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria127.9628
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation108.7773
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0249
SAESum of the absolute errors6635.4149
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CAC 40. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CAC 40. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CAC 40

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CAC 40. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper

Other Forecasting Options for CAC 40

View Currently Related Equities

CAC 40 Technical and Predictive Analytics

CAC 40 Market Strength Events

Volatility Measures

CAC 40 Risk Indicators

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Check out fundamental analysis of CAC 40 to check your projections. Please also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
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