IPC Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

IPC
MXX -- Mexico Index  

 36,890  683.10  1.89%

IPC Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast IPC historical stock prices and determine the direction of IPC future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of IPC historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out fundamental analysis of IPC to check your projections.

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A naive forecasting model for IPC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of IPC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

IPC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May

Given 30 days horizon, the forecasted value of IPC on the next trading day is expected to be  35,788  with a mean absolute deviation of  727.25 , mean absolute percentage error of  805,285 , and the sum of the absolute errors of  44,363 
 35,788 

IPC Index Forecast Pattern

IPC Forecasted Value

Market Value
36,890
28th of May 2020
35,785
Downside
35,788
Expected Value
35,791
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria131.7095
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation727.2546
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0204
SAESum of the absolute errors44362.5311
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of IPC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict IPC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for IPC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as IPC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
36,88736,89036,893
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34,30534,30840,579
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34,35436,18738,021
Details

Other Forecasting Options for IPC

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Check out fundamental analysis of IPC to check your projections. Please also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
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