Agilent Technologies Naive Prediction

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Agilent Technologies historic prices and determine the direction of Agilent Technologies Inc future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agilent Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agilent Technologies Inc systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilent Technologies fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilent Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Agilent Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agilent Technologies Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Agilent Technologies Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 56.61

Agilent Technologies Prediction Pattern

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Agilent Technologies Forecasted Value

May 23, 2017
58.66
Market Value
Downside upside
56.61
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
60.24
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria45.4091
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4293
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0076
SAESum of the absolute errors9.4442
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agilent Technologies Inc. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

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Agilent Technologies, Inc. offer application focused solutions to the life sciences, diagnostics, and applied chemical markets worldwide. more
NameAgilent Technologies Inc
Analyst Consensus
Piotroski F Score
Macroaxis Advice
Bond Rating
BBB+Good
InstrumentUSA Stock
RegionNorth America
ExchangeNew York Stock Exchange
CIK Number01090872.0
ISINUS00846U1016
CUSIP00846U101

Volatility Measures

Agilent Technologies Risk Indicators