Alcoa Naive Prediction

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AA -- USA Stock  

Sell-off Trend

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Alcoa historic prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corporation future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alcoa historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Alcoa Corporation systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alcoa fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa to cross-verify your projections.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Alcoa is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alcoa Corporation value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Alcoa Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 14.985977

Alcoa Prediction Pattern

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Alcoa Forecasted Value

Market Value
January 25, 2020
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2816
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3023
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0148
SAESum of the absolute errors18.4433
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alcoa Corporation. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Alcoa Risk Indicators