American Airlines Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAL Stock  USD 14.11  0.15  1.07%   
American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Airlines stock prices and determine the direction of American Airlines Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Airlines historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although American Airlines naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of American Airlines Group systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Airlines fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, American Airlines' Fixed Asset Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.87 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 14.72. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 755.7 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 120 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-22 American Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Airlines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest American Airlines' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies American Airlines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Airlines' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Airlines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Airlines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in American Airlines cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Airlines' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Airlines' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Airlines is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Airlines Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Airlines Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 13.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest American AirlinesAmerican Airlines Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Airlines Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.69 and 16.44, respectively. We have considered American Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.11
13.56
Expected Value
16.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2057
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3226
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0226
SAESum of the absolute errors20.001
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Airlines Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Airlines. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Airlines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Airlines in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.2714.1116.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.8314.6717.51
Details
20 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.7815.1416.81
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.35-0.26-0.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Airlines. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Airlines' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Airlines' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Airlines.

Other Forecasting Options for American Airlines

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Airlines' price trends.

American Airlines Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Daseke IncCanadian National RailwayWerner EnterprisesCanadian Pacific RailwayCSX CorporationAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational Business
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Airlines Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Airlines' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Airlines' current price.

American Airlines Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Airlines Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Airlines Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Airlines stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Airlines Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Airlines' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to American Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Airlines Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Airlines' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for American Airlines' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average American Airlines' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on American Airlines.

American Airlines Implied Volatility

    
  46.52  
American Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Airlines Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Airlines' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Airlines options trading.

Pair Trading with American Airlines

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Airlines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Airlines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against American Stock

  0.46ATSG Air Transport Services Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 PairCorr
  0.45VLRS Volaris Financial Report 22nd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.43SRFM Surf Air MobilityPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Airlines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Airlines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Airlines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Airlines Group to buy it.
The correlation of American Airlines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Airlines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Airlines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Airlines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the American Airlines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Airlines' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running American Airlines' price analysis, check to measure American Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of American Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Earnings Share
1.21
Revenue Per Share
80.764
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0396
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.