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American Airlines Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

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AAL -- USA Stock  

Downward Rally

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Airlines historic stock prices and determine the direction of American Airlines Group future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Airlines historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of American Airlines Group systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Airlines fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for American Airlines is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Airlines Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 18.798028

American Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern

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American Airlines Forecasted Value

Market Value
22.31
February 27, 2020
18.80
Expected Value
27.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2932
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5263
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors32.1066
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Airlines Group. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

American Airlines Risk Indicators

Current Sentiment - AAL

American Airlines Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on American Airlines Group. What is your sentiment towards investing in American Airlines Group? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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American Airlines Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Airlines and Hawaiian Holdings. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections. Please also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.