American Airlines Polynomial Regression

American Airlines Group Inc -- USA Stock  

USD 47.69  0.3  0.63%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast American Airlines historic prices and determine the direction of American Airlines Group Inc future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Airlines historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of American Airlines Group Inc systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Airlines fundamentals over time. Check also Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Airlines to cross-verify your projections.
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Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
American Airlines polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for American Airlines Group Inc as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of American Airlines Group Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 49.186324

American Airlines Group Prediction Pattern

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American Airlines Forecasted Value

November 21, 2017
47.69
Market Value
Downside upside
49.19
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
54.22
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria35.8847
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4469
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0095
SAESum of the absolute errors7.5969
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the American Airlines historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm