AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AB Stock  USD 34.74  0.01  0.03%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AllianceBernstein Holding LP on the next trading day is expected to be 34.63 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.37  and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.50. AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AllianceBernstein stock prices and determine the direction of AllianceBernstein Holding LP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AllianceBernstein's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AllianceBernstein's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AllianceBernstein's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AllianceBernstein fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AllianceBernstein to cross-verify your projections.
  
The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 889.51, whereas Payables Turnover is projected to grow to (81.36). . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 85.7 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to decline to about 222.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 AllianceBernstein Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AllianceBernstein's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AllianceBernstein's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AllianceBernstein stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AllianceBernstein's open interest, investors have to compare it to AllianceBernstein's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AllianceBernstein is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AllianceBernstein. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AllianceBernstein cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AllianceBernstein's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AllianceBernstein's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for AllianceBernstein is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AllianceBernstein Holding LP value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

AllianceBernstein Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AllianceBernstein Holding LP on the next trading day is expected to be 34.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AllianceBernstein Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AllianceBernstein's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AllianceBernsteinAllianceBernstein Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

AllianceBernstein Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AllianceBernstein's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AllianceBernstein's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.21 and 36.05, respectively. We have considered AllianceBernstein's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.74
34.63
Expected Value
36.05
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AllianceBernstein stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AllianceBernstein stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4558
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3689
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors22.5039
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of AllianceBernstein Holding LP. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AllianceBernstein. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for AllianceBernstein

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AllianceBernstein. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AllianceBernstein's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.3534.7836.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.0135.4436.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.4334.2435.05
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
34.0237.3841.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AllianceBernstein. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AllianceBernstein's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AllianceBernstein's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AllianceBernstein.

Other Forecasting Options for AllianceBernstein

For every potential investor in AllianceBernstein, whether a beginner or expert, AllianceBernstein's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AllianceBernstein Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AllianceBernstein. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AllianceBernstein's price trends.

AllianceBernstein Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AllianceBernstein stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AllianceBernstein could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AllianceBernstein by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AllianceBernstein Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AllianceBernstein's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AllianceBernstein's current price.

AllianceBernstein Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AllianceBernstein stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AllianceBernstein shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AllianceBernstein stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AllianceBernstein Holding LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AllianceBernstein Risk Indicators

The analysis of AllianceBernstein's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AllianceBernstein's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alliancebernstein stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

AllianceBernstein Investors Sentiment

The influence of AllianceBernstein's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in AllianceBernstein. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to AllianceBernstein's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AllianceBernstein. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AllianceBernstein can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AllianceBernstein Holding LP. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
AllianceBernstein's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for AllianceBernstein's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average AllianceBernstein's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on AllianceBernstein.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AllianceBernstein in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AllianceBernstein's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AllianceBernstein options trading.

Pair Trading with AllianceBernstein

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AllianceBernstein position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AllianceBernstein will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AllianceBernstein Stock

  0.89BK Bank of New York Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.84MA Mastercard Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.77AXP American Express Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.74BAM Brookfield Asset Man Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr

Moving against AllianceBernstein Stock

  0.76MBCN Middlefield Banc Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.71BY Byline Bancorp Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.69MCBC Macatawa Bank Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.68AC Associated CapitalPairCorr
  0.58DHIL Diamond Hill InvestmentPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AllianceBernstein could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AllianceBernstein when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AllianceBernstein - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AllianceBernstein Holding LP to buy it.
The correlation of AllianceBernstein is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AllianceBernstein moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AllianceBernstein moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AllianceBernstein can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether AllianceBernstein offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of AllianceBernstein's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alliancebernstein Holding Lp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alliancebernstein Holding Lp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AllianceBernstein to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the AllianceBernstein information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AllianceBernstein's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for AllianceBernstein Stock analysis

When running AllianceBernstein's price analysis, check to measure AllianceBernstein's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AllianceBernstein is operating at the current time. Most of AllianceBernstein's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AllianceBernstein's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AllianceBernstein's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AllianceBernstein to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AllianceBernstein's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AllianceBernstein. If investors know AllianceBernstein will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AllianceBernstein listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.207
Dividend Share
2.69
Earnings Share
2.34
Revenue Per Share
2.654
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.46)
The market value of AllianceBernstein is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AllianceBernstein that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AllianceBernstein's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AllianceBernstein's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AllianceBernstein's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AllianceBernstein's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AllianceBernstein's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AllianceBernstein is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AllianceBernstein's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.