Associated Capital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AC Stock  USD 32.71  0.10  0.31%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Associated Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 31.62 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.28  and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.09. Associated Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Associated Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Associated Capital Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Associated Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Associated Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Associated Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Associated Capital fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Associated Capital to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Associated Capital's Receivables Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.06, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to (0.1). . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 19 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (41.8 M).
Most investors in Associated Capital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Associated Capital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Associated Capital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Associated Capital is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Associated Capital Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Associated Capital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Associated Capital Group on the next trading day is expected to be 31.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Associated Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Associated Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Associated Capital Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Associated CapitalAssociated Capital Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Associated Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Associated Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Associated Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.50 and 32.74, respectively. We have considered Associated Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.71
31.62
Expected Value
32.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Associated Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Associated Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.033
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2802
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0084
SAESum of the absolute errors17.0919
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Associated Capital Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Associated Capital. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Associated Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Associated Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Associated Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.4932.6133.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.1133.2334.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.7632.5033.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Associated Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Associated Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Associated Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Associated Capital.

Other Forecasting Options for Associated Capital

For every potential investor in Associated, whether a beginner or expert, Associated Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Associated Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Associated. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Associated Capital's price trends.

Associated Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Associated Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Associated Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Associated Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Associated Capital Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Associated Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Associated Capital's current price.

Associated Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Associated Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Associated Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Associated Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Associated Capital Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Associated Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Associated Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Associated Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting associated stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Associated Capital

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Associated Capital position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Associated Capital will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Associated Stock

  0.8CB Chubb Financial Report 23rd of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.77MA Mastercard Financial Report 25th of April 2024 PairCorr
  0.77V Visa Class A Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.76BK Bank of New York Fiscal Quarter End 31st of March 2024 PairCorr
  0.74AXP American Express Sell-off TrendPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Associated Capital could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Associated Capital when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Associated Capital - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Associated Capital Group to buy it.
The correlation of Associated Capital is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Associated Capital moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Associated Capital moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Associated Capital can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Associated Capital offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Associated Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Associated Capital Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Associated Capital Group Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Associated Capital to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Associated Capital information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Associated Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for Associated Stock analysis

When running Associated Capital's price analysis, check to measure Associated Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Associated Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Associated Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Associated Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Associated Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Associated Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Is Associated Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Associated Capital. If investors know Associated will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Associated Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.214
Dividend Share
0.2
Earnings Share
1.72
Revenue Per Share
0.583
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.25)
The market value of Associated Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Associated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Associated Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Associated Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Associated Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Associated Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Associated Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Associated Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Associated Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.