Adams Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AE Stock | USD 29.52 0.92 3.22% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adams Resources Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 29.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.41. Adams Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adams Resources stock prices and determine the direction of Adams Resources Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adams Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Adams Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adams Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adams Resources fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adams Resources to cross-verify your projections. Adams |
Most investors in Adams Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Adams Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Adams Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Adams Resources is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Adams Resources Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Adams Resources Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 29.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adams Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adams Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adams Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Adams Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adams Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adams Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.58 and 32.46, respectively. We have considered Adams Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adams Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adams Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.339 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1445 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6848 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.405 |
Predictive Modules for Adams Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adams Resources Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adams Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Adams Resources
For every potential investor in Adams, whether a beginner or expert, Adams Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adams Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adams. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adams Resources' price trends.Adams Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adams Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adams Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adams Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adams Resources Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adams Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adams Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adams Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adams Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adams Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adams Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adams Resources Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adams Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adams Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adams Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adams stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Variance | 8.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Adams Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adams Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adams Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Adams Stock
| 0.8 | CSAN | Cosan SA ADR Financial Report 20th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | CLNE | Clean Energy Fuels Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.63 | VTNR | Vertex Energy Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | DKL | Delek Logistics Partners Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | SGU | Star Gas Partners | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adams Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adams Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adams Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adams Resources Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Adams Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adams Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adams Resources Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adams Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adams Resources to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Adams Resources Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Adams Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Adams Stock analysis
When running Adams Resources' price analysis, check to measure Adams Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adams Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Adams Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adams Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adams Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adams Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Adams Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adams Resources. If investors know Adams will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adams Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.763 | Dividend Share 0.96 | Earnings Share 0.08 | Revenue Per Share 1.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Adams Resources Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adams that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adams Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adams Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adams Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adams Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adams Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adams Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adams Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.