Agnico Eagle Naive Prediction

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AEM -- USA Stock  

Earning Report: February 13, 2020  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Agnico Eagle historic prices and determine the direction of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agnico Eagle historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agnico Eagle fundamentals over time. Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agnico Eagle to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Agnico Eagle is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 60.298644

Agnico Eagle Mines Prediction Pattern

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Agnico Eagle Forecasted Value

Market Value
59.74
January 29, 2020
60.30
Expected Value
65.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria118.2707
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9081
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors55.3934
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Agnico Eagle Risk Indicators