Air France Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AFLYY Stock | USD 1.06 0.05 4.95% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Air France KLM on the next trading day is expected to be 1.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.68. Air Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Air France stock prices and determine the direction of Air France KLM's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Air France's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air France to cross-verify your projections. Air |
Most investors in Air France cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Air France's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Air France's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Air France polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Air France KLM as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Air France Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Air France KLM on the next trading day is expected to be 1.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air France's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air France Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air France | Air France Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Air France Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air France's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air France's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.45, respectively. We have considered Air France's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air France pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air France pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3732 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.6811 |
Predictive Modules for Air France
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air France KLM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air France's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Air France
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air France's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air France's price trends.Air France Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air France pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air France could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air France by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air France KLM Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Air France's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Air France's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air France Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air France pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air France shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air France pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Air France KLM entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Air France Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air France's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air France's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Air France in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Air France's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Air France options trading.
Pair Trading with Air France
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Air France position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Air France will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Air Pink Sheet
| 0.92 | GE | GE Aerospace Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | CAT | Caterpillar Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | DIS | Walt Disney Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.79 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase Financial Report 12th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Air France could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Air France when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Air France - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Air France KLM to buy it.
The correlation of Air France is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Air France moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Air France KLM moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Air France can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air France to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Air Pink Sheet analysis
When running Air France's price analysis, check to measure Air France's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air France is operating at the current time. Most of Air France's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air France's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air France's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air France to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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