Alumina Limited OTC Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

AWCMY Stock  USD 3.70  0.22  6.32%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alumina Limited PK on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.10  and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37. Alumina OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alumina Limited stock prices and determine the direction of Alumina Limited PK's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alumina Limited's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alumina Limited to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Alumina Limited cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alumina Limited's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alumina Limited's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Alumina Limited polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Alumina Limited PK as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Alumina Limited Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alumina Limited PK on the next trading day is expected to be 3.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.37.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alumina OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alumina Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alumina Limited OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alumina LimitedAlumina Limited Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alumina Limited Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alumina Limited's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alumina Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.20 and 7.49, respectively. We have considered Alumina Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.70
3.84
Expected Value
7.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alumina Limited otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alumina Limited otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8113
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1027
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0352
SAESum of the absolute errors6.3653
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Alumina Limited historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Alumina Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alumina Limited PK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alumina Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.083.707.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.173.376.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alumina Limited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alumina Limited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alumina Limited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alumina Limited PK.

Other Forecasting Options for Alumina Limited

For every potential investor in Alumina, whether a beginner or expert, Alumina Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alumina OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alumina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alumina Limited's price trends.

Alumina Limited Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alumina Limited otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alumina Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alumina Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alumina Limited PK Technical and Predictive Analytics

The otc stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alumina Limited's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alumina Limited's current price.

Alumina Limited Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alumina Limited otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alumina Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alumina Limited otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alumina Limited PK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alumina Limited Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alumina Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alumina Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alumina otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Alumina Limited

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alumina Limited position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alumina Limited will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Alumina OTC Stock

  0.74CHKEZ Chesapeake EnergyPairCorr
  0.73CHKEL Chesapeake EnergyPairCorr

Moving against Alumina OTC Stock

  0.78GPOVF Grupo Carso SABPairCorr
  0.74GRNTF IPath Global CarbonPairCorr
  0.72ASTSW AST SpaceMobilePairCorr
  0.64ORGN Origin Materials Financial Report 8th of May 2024 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alumina Limited could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alumina Limited when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alumina Limited - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alumina Limited PK to buy it.
The correlation of Alumina Limited is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alumina Limited moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alumina Limited PK moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alumina Limited can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alumina Limited to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Alumina Limited's price analysis, check to measure Alumina Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alumina Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Alumina Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alumina Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alumina Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alumina Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Alumina Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alumina Limited is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alumina Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.