Virtus LifeSci Etf Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BBC Etf | USD 25.63 0.46 1.83% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virtus LifeSci Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 25.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.43. Virtus Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virtus LifeSci stock prices and determine the direction of Virtus LifeSci Biotech's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Virtus LifeSci's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus LifeSci to cross-verify your projections. Virtus |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Virtus Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Virtus LifeSci's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Virtus LifeSci's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Virtus LifeSci stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
No Open InterestPlease note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Virtus LifeSci's open interest, investors have to compare it to Virtus LifeSci's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Virtus LifeSci is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Virtus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Virtus LifeSci cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Virtus LifeSci's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Virtus LifeSci's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Virtus LifeSci - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Virtus LifeSci prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Virtus LifeSci price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Virtus LifeSci Biotech. Virtus LifeSci Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Virtus LifeSci Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 25.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.55, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus LifeSci's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virtus LifeSci Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Virtus LifeSci | Virtus LifeSci Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Virtus LifeSci Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virtus LifeSci's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus LifeSci's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.10 and 27.47, respectively. We have considered Virtus LifeSci's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus LifeSci etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus LifeSci etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5497 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.4318 |
Predictive Modules for Virtus LifeSci
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus LifeSci Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virtus LifeSci's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Virtus LifeSci
For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus LifeSci's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus LifeSci's price trends.Virtus LifeSci Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus LifeSci etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus LifeSci could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus LifeSci by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virtus LifeSci Biotech Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Virtus LifeSci's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Virtus LifeSci's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virtus LifeSci Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virtus LifeSci etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virtus LifeSci shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virtus LifeSci etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Virtus LifeSci Biotech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virtus LifeSci Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virtus LifeSci's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus LifeSci's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virtus etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Virtus LifeSci
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Virtus LifeSci position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Virtus LifeSci will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Virtus Etf
| 0.85 | XLV | Health Care Select | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | VHT | Vanguard Health Care | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | XBI | SPDR SP Biotech | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | IHI | iShares Medical Devices | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Virtus LifeSci could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Virtus LifeSci when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Virtus LifeSci - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Virtus LifeSci Biotech to buy it.
The correlation of Virtus LifeSci is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Virtus LifeSci moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Virtus LifeSci Biotech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Virtus LifeSci can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virtus LifeSci to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Virtus LifeSci Biotech information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virtus LifeSci's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
The market value of Virtus LifeSci Biotech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virtus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virtus LifeSci's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virtus LifeSci's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virtus LifeSci's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virtus LifeSci's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virtus LifeSci's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virtus LifeSci is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virtus LifeSci's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.