Cinemark Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CNK Stock  USD 18.07  0.48  2.73%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cinemark Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.07 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.25  and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.12. Cinemark Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Cinemark Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Cinemark Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Cinemark Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Cinemark Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cinemark Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cinemark Holdings fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cinemark Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Cinemark Stock please use our How to buy in Cinemark Stock guide.
  
At this time, Cinemark Holdings' Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 1.58 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 92.96. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 120.4 M. Net Loss is expected to rise to about (231.9 M) this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Cinemark Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cinemark Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cinemark Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cinemark Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cinemark Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cinemark Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cinemark Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cinemark. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Cinemark Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Cinemark Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Cinemark Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Cinemark Holdings simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Cinemark Holdings are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Cinemark Holdings prices get older.

Cinemark Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cinemark Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 18.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cinemark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cinemark Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Cinemark Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Cinemark HoldingsCinemark Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Cinemark Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Cinemark Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cinemark Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.14 and 20.00, respectively. We have considered Cinemark Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.07
18.07
Expected Value
20.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cinemark Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cinemark Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7879
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0652
MADMean absolute deviation0.2479
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0156
SAESum of the absolute errors15.12
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Cinemark Holdings forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Cinemark Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Cinemark Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cinemark Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cinemark Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.9417.8719.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.5819.5121.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.3917.8018.20
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.4520.2722.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cinemark Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cinemark Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cinemark Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Cinemark Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Cinemark Holdings

For every potential investor in Cinemark, whether a beginner or expert, Cinemark Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cinemark Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cinemark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cinemark Holdings' price trends.

Cinemark Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cinemark Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cinemark Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cinemark Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Cinemark Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Cinemark Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Cinemark Holdings' current price.

Cinemark Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cinemark Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cinemark Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cinemark Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cinemark Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Cinemark Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Cinemark Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cinemark Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cinemark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Cinemark Holdings Investors Sentiment

The influence of Cinemark Holdings' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Cinemark. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Cinemark Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cinemark. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cinemark can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cinemark Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Cinemark Holdings' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Cinemark Holdings' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Cinemark Holdings' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Cinemark Holdings.

Cinemark Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  36.43  
Cinemark Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cinemark Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cinemark Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cinemark Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cinemark Holdings' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Cinemark Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Cinemark Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Cinemark Holdings options trading.

Pair Trading with Cinemark Holdings

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Cinemark Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Cinemark Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Cinemark Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Cinemark Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Cinemark Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Cinemark Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Cinemark Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Cinemark Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Cinemark Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Cinemark Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Cinemark Holdings is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Cinemark Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Cinemark Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Cinemark Holdings Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cinemark Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Cinemark Stock please use our How to buy in Cinemark Stock guide.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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Is Cinemark Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cinemark Holdings. If investors know Cinemark will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cinemark Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Earnings Share
1.34
Revenue Per Share
25.749
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.065
Return On Assets
0.0481
The market value of Cinemark Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cinemark that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cinemark Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cinemark Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cinemark Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cinemark Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cinemark Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cinemark Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cinemark Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.