Evertec Naive Prediction

EVTC -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Evertec historic prices and determine the direction of Evertec future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Evertec historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Evertec systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Evertec fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evertec to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Evertec is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Evertec value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Evertec on the next trading day is expected to be 30.004232

Evertec Prediction Pattern

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Evertec Forecasted Value

Market Value
31.65
December 16, 2019
30.00
Expected Value
34.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1769
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4975
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors30.3492
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Evertec. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Evertec Risk Indicators

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