Evertec Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EVTC Stock  USD 39.90  0.28  0.71%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Evertec on the next trading day is expected to be 38.34 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.22  and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.48. Evertec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Evertec stock prices and determine the direction of Evertec's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Evertec's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Evertec's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Evertec's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Evertec fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evertec to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Evertec Stock refer to our How to Trade Evertec Stock guide.
  
At present, Evertec's Fixed Asset Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.34, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 9.98. . The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 288.6 M, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is forecasted to decline to about 59.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Evertec Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Evertec's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Evertec's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Evertec stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Evertec's open interest, investors have to compare it to Evertec's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Evertec is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Evertec. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Evertec cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Evertec's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Evertec's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Evertec price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Evertec Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Evertec on the next trading day is expected to be 38.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 1.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Evertec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Evertec's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Evertec Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest EvertecEvertec Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Evertec Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Evertec's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Evertec's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.31 and 40.38, respectively. We have considered Evertec's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.90
38.34
Expected Value
40.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Evertec stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Evertec stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6151
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2173
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors75.4754
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Evertec historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Evertec

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evertec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evertec's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.8839.9041.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.5039.5241.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
35.4738.1240.77
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
38.5242.3346.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Evertec. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Evertec's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Evertec's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Evertec.

Other Forecasting Options for Evertec

For every potential investor in Evertec, whether a beginner or expert, Evertec's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Evertec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Evertec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Evertec's price trends.

Evertec Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Evertec stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Evertec could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Evertec by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Evertec Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Evertec's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Evertec's current price.

Evertec Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Evertec stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Evertec shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Evertec stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Evertec entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Evertec Risk Indicators

The analysis of Evertec's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Evertec's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evertec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Evertec in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Evertec's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Evertec options trading.

Pair Trading with Evertec

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Evertec position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Evertec will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Evertec Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Evertec could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Evertec when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Evertec - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Evertec to buy it.
The correlation of Evertec is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Evertec moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Evertec moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Evertec can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Evertec offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Evertec's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Evertec Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Evertec Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Evertec to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Evertec Stock refer to our How to Trade Evertec Stock guide.
You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.

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When running Evertec's price analysis, check to measure Evertec's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evertec is operating at the current time. Most of Evertec's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evertec's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evertec's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evertec to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Evertec's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evertec. If investors know Evertec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evertec listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.61)
Dividend Share
0.2
Earnings Share
1.21
Revenue Per Share
10.699
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.203
The market value of Evertec is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evertec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evertec's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evertec's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evertec's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evertec's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evertec's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evertec is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evertec's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.