|F -- USA Stock|| |
USD 8.82 0.28 3.28%
Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Ford Motor historic prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor Company future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford Motor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor Company systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford Motor fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford Motor
to cross-verify your projections.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Ford Motor Company is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Ford Motor Company on the next trading day is expected to be 8.6
Ford Motor Prediction Pattern
Ford Motor Forecasted Value
December 12, 2018
Model Predictive Factors
|AIC||Akaike Information Criteria||69.7016|
|Bias||Arithmetic mean of the errors ||-0.0107|
|MAD||Mean absolute deviation||0.2236|
|MAPE||Mean absolute percentage error||0.0247|
|SAE||Sum of the absolute errors||8.05|
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Ford Motor. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Ford Motor Company and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions