Ford Motor 4 Period Moving Average

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.05  0.07  0.58%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Ford Motor historic prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor Company future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford Motor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor Company systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford Motor fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford Motor to cross-verify your projections.
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Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A four-period moving average forecast model for Ford Motor Company is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Ford Motor Company on the next trading day is expected to be 12.09

Ford Motor Prediction Pattern

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Ford Motor Forecasted Value

October 17, 2017
12.05
Market Value
Downside upside
12.09
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
14.48
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria28.0635
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0262
MADMean absolute deviation0.1298
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors1.8175
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Ford Motor. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Ford Motor Company and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions