Ford Motor 8 Period Moving Average

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.51  0.12  0.95%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Ford Motor historic prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor Company future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford Motor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor Company systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford Motor fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford Motor to cross-verify your projections.
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Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Ford Motor is based on an artificially constructed time series of Ford Motor daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Ford Motor Company on the next trading day is expected to be 12.53375

Ford Motor Prediction Pattern

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Ford Motor Forecasted Value

December 14, 2017
12.51
Market Value
Downside upside
12.53
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
15.01
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria18.5745
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0906
MADMean absolute deviation0.1019
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors0.9175
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Ford Motor Company 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.