Ford Motor Simple Moving Average

F -- USA Stock  

USD 9.74  0.28  2.96%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Ford Motor historic prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor Company future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford Motor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor Company systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford Motor fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford Motor to cross-verify your projections.
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 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A two period moving average forecast for Ford Motor is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Ford Motor Company on the next trading day is expected to be 9.6

Ford Motor Prediction Pattern

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Ford Motor Forecasted Value

August 15, 2018
9.74
Market Value
9.60
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Odds
  
14.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria30.7466
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.089
MADMean absolute deviation0.183
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0187
SAESum of the absolute errors2.745
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ford Motor Company price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ford Motor. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future