Ford Motor Simple Moving Average

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 12.58  0.05  0.4%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Ford Motor historic prices and determine the direction of Ford Motor Company future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Ford Motor historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Ford Motor Company systematic risks associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ford Motor fundamentals over time. Additionally see Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ford Motor to cross-verify your projections.
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Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A two period moving average forecast for Ford Motor is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Ford Motor Company on the next trading day is expected to be 12.605

Ford Motor Prediction Pattern

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Ford Motor Forecasted Value

December 14, 2017
12.58
Market Value
Downside upside
12.61
Next Trading Day Expected Value
Target Price Odds
 Above  Below  
15.14
Upside
Upside upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria31.4182
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0444
MADMean absolute deviation0.0962
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0077
SAESum of the absolute errors1.54
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Ford Motor Company price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Ford Motor. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future