FuelCell Energy Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FCELB Stock  USD 391.00  4.00  1.01%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of FuelCell Energy Pref on the next trading day is expected to be 386.39 with a mean absolute deviation of  7.53  and the sum of the absolute errors of 459.42. FuelCell Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FuelCell Energy stock prices and determine the direction of FuelCell Energy Pref's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of FuelCell Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade FuelCell Pink Sheet refer to our How to Trade FuelCell Pink Sheet guide.
  
Most investors in FuelCell Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the FuelCell Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets FuelCell Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
FuelCell Energy polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for FuelCell Energy Pref as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

FuelCell Energy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of FuelCell Energy Pref on the next trading day is expected to be 386.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.53, mean absolute percentage error of 73.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 459.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FuelCell Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FuelCell Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FuelCell Energy Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest FuelCell EnergyFuelCell Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

FuelCell Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FuelCell Energy's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FuelCell Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 384.78 and 388.00, respectively. We have considered FuelCell Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
391.00
384.78
Downside
386.39
Expected Value
388.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FuelCell Energy pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FuelCell Energy pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4076
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation7.5314
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors459.4152
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the FuelCell Energy historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for FuelCell Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FuelCell Energy Pref. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FuelCell Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
389.39391.00392.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
330.51332.12430.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FuelCell Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FuelCell Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FuelCell Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FuelCell Energy Pref.

Other Forecasting Options for FuelCell Energy

For every potential investor in FuelCell, whether a beginner or expert, FuelCell Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FuelCell Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FuelCell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FuelCell Energy's price trends.

FuelCell Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FuelCell Energy pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FuelCell Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FuelCell Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FuelCell Energy Pref Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FuelCell Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FuelCell Energy's current price.

FuelCell Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FuelCell Energy pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FuelCell Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FuelCell Energy pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify FuelCell Energy Pref entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FuelCell Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of FuelCell Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FuelCell Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fuelcell pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FuelCell Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade FuelCell Pink Sheet refer to our How to Trade FuelCell Pink Sheet guide.
You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between FuelCell Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FuelCell Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FuelCell Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.