Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| HLT Stock | USD 194.47 4.35 2.19% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 196.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.32. Hilton Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hilton Worldwide stock prices and determine the direction of Hilton Worldwide Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hilton Worldwide's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Hilton Worldwide's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Hilton Worldwide's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Hilton Worldwide fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilton Worldwide to cross-verify your projections. Hilton |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Hilton Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Hilton Worldwide's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Hilton Worldwide's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Hilton Worldwide stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Hilton Worldwide's open interest, investors have to compare it to Hilton Worldwide's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Hilton Worldwide is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Hilton. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Hilton Worldwide cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hilton Worldwide's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hilton Worldwide's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Hilton Worldwide polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Hilton Worldwide Holdings as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Hilton Worldwide Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 196.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.81, mean absolute percentage error of 4.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hilton Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hilton Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Hilton Worldwide Stock Forecast Pattern
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Hilton Worldwide Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Hilton Worldwide's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hilton Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 195.80 and 197.84, respectively. We have considered Hilton Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hilton Worldwide stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hilton Worldwide stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7038 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8085 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.321 |
Predictive Modules for Hilton Worldwide
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hilton Worldwide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Hilton Worldwide
For every potential investor in Hilton, whether a beginner or expert, Hilton Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hilton Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hilton. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hilton Worldwide's price trends.Hilton Worldwide Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hilton Worldwide stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hilton Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hilton Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hilton Worldwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hilton Worldwide's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Hilton Worldwide Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hilton Worldwide stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hilton Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hilton Worldwide stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hilton Worldwide Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 80205.6 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.70) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 196.96 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 196.13 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.66) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.35) |
Hilton Worldwide Risk Indicators
The analysis of Hilton Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hilton Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hilton stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.794 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9287 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9761 | |||
| Variance | 0.9528 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8625 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Hilton Worldwide Investors Sentiment
The influence of Hilton Worldwide's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Hilton. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Hilton Worldwide's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hilton. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hilton can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Hilton Worldwide's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Hilton Worldwide's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Hilton Worldwide's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Hilton Worldwide.
Hilton Worldwide Implied Volatility | 49.28 |
Hilton Worldwide's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hilton Worldwide's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hilton Worldwide stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hilton Worldwide's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hilton Worldwide in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hilton Worldwide's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hilton Worldwide options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hilton Worldwide to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Hilton Stock analysis
When running Hilton Worldwide's price analysis, check to measure Hilton Worldwide's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hilton Worldwide is operating at the current time. Most of Hilton Worldwide's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hilton Worldwide's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hilton Worldwide's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hilton Worldwide to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hilton Worldwide's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hilton Worldwide. If investors know Hilton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hilton Worldwide listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 4.33 | Revenue Per Share 16.824 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.071 |
The market value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hilton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hilton Worldwide's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hilton Worldwide's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hilton Worldwide's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hilton Worldwide's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hilton Worldwide's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hilton Worldwide is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hilton Worldwide's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.