InterContinental Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| IHG Stock | USD 97.77 0.06 0.06% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of InterContinental Hotels Group on the next trading day is expected to be 95.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.83. InterContinental Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast InterContinental stock prices and determine the direction of InterContinental Hotels Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of InterContinental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although InterContinental's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of InterContinental's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of InterContinental fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of InterContinental to cross-verify your projections. InterContinental |
Most investors in InterContinental cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the InterContinental's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets InterContinental's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
InterContinental polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for InterContinental Hotels Group as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. InterContinental Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of InterContinental Hotels Group on the next trading day is expected to be 95.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03, mean absolute percentage error of 7.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict InterContinental Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that InterContinental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
InterContinental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest InterContinental | InterContinental Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
InterContinental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting InterContinental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. InterContinental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.68 and 96.74, respectively. We have considered InterContinental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of InterContinental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent InterContinental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0909 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.03 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.827 |
Predictive Modules for InterContinental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as InterContinental Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of InterContinental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for InterContinental
For every potential investor in InterContinental, whether a beginner or expert, InterContinental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. InterContinental Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in InterContinental. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying InterContinental's price trends.InterContinental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with InterContinental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of InterContinental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing InterContinental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
InterContinental Hotels Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of InterContinental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of InterContinental's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
InterContinental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how InterContinental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading InterContinental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying InterContinental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify InterContinental Hotels Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8104.41 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 98.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 98.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.84) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.26 |
InterContinental Risk Indicators
The analysis of InterContinental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in InterContinental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting intercontinental stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9941 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
InterContinental Investors Sentiment
The influence of InterContinental's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in InterContinental. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to InterContinental's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in InterContinental. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding InterContinental can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around InterContinental Hotels Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
InterContinental's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for InterContinental's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average InterContinental's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on InterContinental.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards InterContinental in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, InterContinental's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from InterContinental options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of InterContinental to cross-verify your projections. Note that the InterContinental Hotels information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other InterContinental's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Complementary Tools for InterContinental Stock analysis
When running InterContinental's price analysis, check to measure InterContinental's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy InterContinental is operating at the current time. Most of InterContinental's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of InterContinental's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move InterContinental's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of InterContinental to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bollinger Bands Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements |
Is InterContinental's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of InterContinental. If investors know InterContinental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about InterContinental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.976 | Dividend Share 1.523 | Earnings Share 4.41 | Revenue Per Share 2.1384 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.14) |
The market value of InterContinental Hotels is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of InterContinental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of InterContinental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is InterContinental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because InterContinental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect InterContinental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between InterContinental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if InterContinental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, InterContinental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.