Jasa Marga Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| JSMR Stock | IDR 5,325 75.00 1.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jasa Marga Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 5,252 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,069. Jasa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jasa Marga stock prices and determine the direction of Jasa Marga Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jasa Marga's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jasa Marga to cross-verify your projections. Jasa |
Most investors in Jasa Marga cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jasa Marga's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jasa Marga's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Jasa Marga is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jasa Marga Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Jasa Marga Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Jasa Marga Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 5,252 with a mean absolute deviation of 99.49, mean absolute percentage error of 16,499, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6,069.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jasa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jasa Marga's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jasa Marga Stock Forecast Pattern
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Jasa Marga Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jasa Marga's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jasa Marga's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,250 and 5,254, respectively. We have considered Jasa Marga's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jasa Marga stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jasa Marga stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 127.8215 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 99.4884 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6068.7904 |
Predictive Modules for Jasa Marga
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jasa Marga Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jasa Marga's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Jasa Marga
For every potential investor in Jasa, whether a beginner or expert, Jasa Marga's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jasa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jasa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jasa Marga's price trends.Jasa Marga Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jasa Marga stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jasa Marga could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jasa Marga by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jasa Marga Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jasa Marga's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jasa Marga's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jasa Marga Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jasa Marga stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jasa Marga shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jasa Marga stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jasa Marga Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.032 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.43) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5387.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5366.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 175.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (100.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (75.00) |
Jasa Marga Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jasa Marga's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jasa Marga's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jasa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Jasa Marga in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Jasa Marga's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Jasa Marga options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jasa Marga to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Jasa Stock analysis
When running Jasa Marga's price analysis, check to measure Jasa Marga's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jasa Marga is operating at the current time. Most of Jasa Marga's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jasa Marga's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jasa Marga's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jasa Marga to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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