Krakatau Steel Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| KRAS Stock | IDR 141.00 1.00 0.71% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Krakatau Steel Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 142.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.10. Krakatau Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Krakatau Steel stock prices and determine the direction of Krakatau Steel Persero's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Krakatau Steel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. Krakatau |
Most investors in Krakatau Steel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Krakatau Steel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Krakatau Steel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Krakatau Steel polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Krakatau Steel Persero as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Krakatau Steel Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Krakatau Steel Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 142.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.33, mean absolute percentage error of 18.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Krakatau Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Krakatau Steel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Krakatau Steel Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Krakatau Steel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Krakatau Steel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3296 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.1046 |
Predictive Modules for Krakatau Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Krakatau Steel Persero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Krakatau Steel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Krakatau Steel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Krakatau Steel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Krakatau Steel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Krakatau Steel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Krakatau Steel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Krakatau Steel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Krakatau Steel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Krakatau Steel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Krakatau Steel Persero entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.021 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 141.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 141.33 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.0 |
Krakatau Steel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Krakatau Steel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Krakatau Steel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting krakatau stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Krakatau Steel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Krakatau Steel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Krakatau Steel options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Krakatau Stock analysis
When running Krakatau Steel's price analysis, check to measure Krakatau Steel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Krakatau Steel is operating at the current time. Most of Krakatau Steel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Krakatau Steel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Krakatau Steel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Krakatau Steel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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