Merck Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MRK Stock  USD 131.95  0.20  0.15%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 127.69 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.20  and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.58. Merck Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Merck stock prices and determine the direction of Merck Company's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merck's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Merck's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Merck's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Merck fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Merck's Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 4.28 this year, although the value of Fixed Asset Turnover will most likely fall to 2.17. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 2.7 B this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 17.5 B this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Merck Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merck's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merck's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merck stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merck's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merck's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merck is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Merck cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Merck's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Merck's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Merck polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Merck Company as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Merck Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Merck Company on the next trading day is expected to be 127.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.20, mean absolute percentage error of 6.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 136.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merck Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MerckMerck Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Merck Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 126.61 and 128.77, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
131.95
126.61
Downside
127.69
Expected Value
128.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7833
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.2029
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors136.5776
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Merck historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Merck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck Company. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
130.76131.93133.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
127.96129.13145.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
118.29124.47130.64
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
106.65117.20130.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Merck Company.

Other Forecasting Options for Merck

For every potential investor in Merck, whether a beginner or expert, Merck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merck's price trends.

Merck Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merck Company Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merck's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merck's current price.

Merck Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merck Company entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merck Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect
When determining whether Merck Company is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Merck Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Merck Company Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Merck Company Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Merck to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis

When running Merck's price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Is Merck's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Merck. If investors know Merck will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Merck listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.453
Dividend Share
2.92
Earnings Share
0.14
Revenue Per Share
23.695
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.058
The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merck is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.