Microsoft Stock Forecast - Downside Variance
| MSFT Stock | USD 413.64 8.26 1.96% |
Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Microsoft stock prices and determine the direction of Microsoft's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Microsoft's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Microsoft's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Microsoft's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Microsoft fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. Microsoft |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Microsoft Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microsoft's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Microsoft's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Microsoft stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microsoft's open interest, investors have to compare it to Microsoft's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microsoft is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microsoft. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Microsoft cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Microsoft's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Microsoft's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
| Check Microsoft Volatility | Backtest Microsoft | Information Ratio |
Microsoft Trading Date Momentum
| On April 16 2024 Microsoft was traded for 413.64 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 426.82 and the lowest listed price was 413.43 . There was no trading activity during the period 0.0. Lack of trading volume on April 16, 2024 did not cause price change. The trading delta at closing time against the current closing price is 3.12% . |
| Compare Microsoft to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft
For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft's price trends.Microsoft Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microsoft Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microsoft's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microsoft's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Microsoft Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0314 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 420.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 417.96 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 13.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.62) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (8.26) |
Microsoft Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microsoft's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9308 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9812 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9628 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microsoft to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Microsoft Stock please use our How to Invest in Microsoft guide.Note that the Microsoft information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microsoft's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.332 | Dividend Share 2.86 | Earnings Share 11.04 | Revenue Per Share 30.612 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.176 |
The market value of Microsoft is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Microsoft is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.