Wetzel SA Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MWET4 Preferred Stock  BRL 5.53  0.27  4.66%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Wetzel SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.90 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.28  and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.61. Wetzel Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Wetzel SA stock prices and determine the direction of Wetzel SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Wetzel SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wetzel SA to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Wetzel SA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, preferred stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Wetzel SA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Wetzel SA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Wetzel SA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Wetzel SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Wetzel SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Wetzel SA on the next trading day is expected to be 4.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Wetzel Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Wetzel SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Wetzel SA Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Wetzel SAWetzel SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Wetzel SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Wetzel SA's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Wetzel SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 10.45, respectively. We have considered Wetzel SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.53
4.90
Expected Value
10.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Wetzel SA preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Wetzel SA preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9232
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.284
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0444
SAESum of the absolute errors17.6072
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Wetzel SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Wetzel SA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Wetzel SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Wetzel SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Wetzel SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.285.5311.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.265.2510.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Wetzel SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Wetzel SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Wetzel SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Wetzel SA.

Other Forecasting Options for Wetzel SA

For every potential investor in Wetzel, whether a beginner or expert, Wetzel SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Wetzel Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Wetzel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Wetzel SA's price trends.

Wetzel SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Wetzel SA preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Wetzel SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Wetzel SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Wetzel SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Wetzel SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Wetzel SA's current price.

Wetzel SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Wetzel SA preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Wetzel SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Wetzel SA preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Wetzel SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Wetzel SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Wetzel SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Wetzel SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting wetzel preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Wetzel SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Wetzel SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Wetzel SA options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Wetzel SA to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Wetzel SA information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Wetzel SA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.

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When running Wetzel SA's price analysis, check to measure Wetzel SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Wetzel SA is operating at the current time. Most of Wetzel SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Wetzel SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Wetzel SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Wetzel SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Wetzel SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Wetzel SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Wetzel SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.