Parex Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PXT Stock | CAD 23.61 0.03 0.13% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Parex Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 23.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.00. Parex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Parex Resources stock prices and determine the direction of Parex Resources's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Parex Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Parex Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Parex Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Parex Resources fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Parex Resources to cross-verify your projections. Parex |
Most investors in Parex Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Parex Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Parex Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Parex Resources is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Parex Resources value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Parex Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Parex Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 23.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Parex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Parex Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Parex Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Parex Resources | Parex Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Parex Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Parex Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Parex Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.89 and 25.31, respectively. We have considered Parex Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Parex Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Parex Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1421 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2786 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.9971 |
Predictive Modules for Parex Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Parex Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Parex Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Parex Resources
For every potential investor in Parex, whether a beginner or expert, Parex Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Parex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Parex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Parex Resources' price trends.Parex Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Parex Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Parex Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Parex Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Parex Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Parex Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Parex Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Parex Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Parex Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Parex Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Parex Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Parex Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Parex Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Parex Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Parex Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting parex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 2.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Parex Resources in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Parex Resources' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Parex Resources options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Parex Resources using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Parex Resources to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Parex Stock analysis
When running Parex Resources' price analysis, check to measure Parex Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Parex Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Parex Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Parex Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Parex Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Parex Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets |