Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| REGN Stock | USD 893.99 7.20 0.80% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 891.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 426.90. Regeneron Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Regeneron |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Regeneron Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Regeneron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Regeneron Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 891.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.24, mean absolute percentage error of 76.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 426.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Regeneron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 890.44 and 892.26, respectively. We have considered Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.178 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.2356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 426.9029 |
Predictive Modules for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Regeneron, whether a beginner or expert, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Regeneron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Regeneron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price trends.View Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Regeneron Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Regeneron Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0183 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.43) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 900.48 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 898.32 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 16.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.20) |
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting regeneron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7497 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.904 | |||
| Variance | 0.8171 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Investors Sentiment
The influence of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Regeneron. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Regeneron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Regeneron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 59.03 |
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Regeneron Pharmaceuticals in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Regeneron Pharmaceuticals options trading.
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When determining whether Regeneron Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Regeneron Stock, please use our How to Invest in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals guide.Note that the Regeneron Pharmaceuticals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Regeneron Stock analysis
When running Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Regeneron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Regeneron Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | Earnings Share 34.78 | Revenue Per Share 122.935 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.006 | Return On Assets 0.0849 |
The market value of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Regeneron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.