Royal Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| RGLD Stock | USD 121.66 1.34 1.09% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 119.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.53. Royal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Royal Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Royal Gold's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Royal Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Royal Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Royal Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Royal Gold fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Gold to cross-verify your projections. Royal |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Royal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Royal Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Royal Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Royal Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Royal Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Royal Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Royal Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Royal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Royal Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Royal Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Royal Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Royal Gold price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Royal Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 119.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.63, mean absolute percentage error of 27.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royal Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Royal Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Royal Gold | Royal Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Royal Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Royal Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Royal Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.69 and 121.78, respectively. We have considered Royal Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royal Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royal Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.4216 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6317 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0413 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 282.5314 |
Predictive Modules for Royal Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Royal Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Royal Gold
For every potential investor in Royal, whether a beginner or expert, Royal Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Royal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Royal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Royal Gold's price trends.Royal Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Royal Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Royal Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Royal Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royal Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Royal Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Royal Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Royal Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Royal Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Royal Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Royal Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Royal Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Royal Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Royal Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Royal Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting royal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.26 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Royal Gold is a strong investment it is important to analyze Royal Gold's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Royal Gold's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Royal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Gold to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Royal Stock refer to our How to Trade Royal Stock guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Royal Stock analysis
When running Royal Gold's price analysis, check to measure Royal Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Royal Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Royal Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Royal Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Royal Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Royal Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals |
Is Royal Gold's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Gold. If investors know Royal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Royal Gold listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.142 | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 3.63 | Revenue Per Share 9.842 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 |
The market value of Royal Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Gold's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Royal Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Royal Gold's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Royal Gold is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Royal Gold's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.