TransAlta Corp Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| TAC Stock | USD 6.22 0.11 1.80% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TransAlta Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.56. TransAlta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TransAlta Corp stock prices and determine the direction of TransAlta Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TransAlta Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although TransAlta Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TransAlta Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TransAlta Corp fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TransAlta Corp to cross-verify your projections. TransAlta |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 TransAlta Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TransAlta Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TransAlta Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TransAlta Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TransAlta Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to TransAlta Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TransAlta Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TransAlta. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in TransAlta Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the TransAlta Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets TransAlta Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
TransAlta Corp polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for TransAlta Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. TransAlta Corp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TransAlta Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TransAlta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TransAlta Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TransAlta Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TransAlta Corp | TransAlta Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TransAlta Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TransAlta Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TransAlta Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.20 and 7.86, respectively. We have considered TransAlta Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TransAlta Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TransAlta Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1825 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1075 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.56 |
Predictive Modules for TransAlta Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TransAlta Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TransAlta Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for TransAlta Corp
For every potential investor in TransAlta, whether a beginner or expert, TransAlta Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TransAlta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TransAlta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TransAlta Corp's price trends.TransAlta Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TransAlta Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TransAlta Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TransAlta Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TransAlta Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TransAlta Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TransAlta Corp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TransAlta Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TransAlta Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TransAlta Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TransAlta Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TransAlta Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TransAlta Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of TransAlta Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TransAlta Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting transalta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
TransAlta Corp Investors Sentiment
The influence of TransAlta Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in TransAlta. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to TransAlta Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TransAlta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TransAlta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TransAlta Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
TransAlta Corp's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for TransAlta Corp's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average TransAlta Corp's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on TransAlta Corp.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TransAlta Corp in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TransAlta Corp's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TransAlta Corp options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
| LTC | Litecoin | |
| STETH | Staked Ether | |
| LINK | Chainlink | |
| XLM | Stellar | |
| CRO | Cronos |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TransAlta Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade TransAlta Stock refer to our How to Trade TransAlta Stock guide.Note that the TransAlta Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TransAlta Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Complementary Tools for TransAlta Stock analysis
When running TransAlta Corp's price analysis, check to measure TransAlta Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TransAlta Corp is operating at the current time. Most of TransAlta Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TransAlta Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TransAlta Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TransAlta Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Financial Widgets Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets | |
| Portfolio Center All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies |
Is TransAlta Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TransAlta Corp. If investors know TransAlta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TransAlta Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.284 | Dividend Share 0.22 | Earnings Share 1.69 | Revenue Per Share 12.156 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
The market value of TransAlta Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TransAlta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TransAlta Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TransAlta Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TransAlta Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TransAlta Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TransAlta Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TransAlta Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TransAlta Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.