Velan Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
VLN Stock | CAD 5.78 0.18 3.21% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Velan Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44. Velan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Velan stock prices and determine the direction of Velan Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Velan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Velan's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Velan's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Velan fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velan to cross-verify your projections. Velan |
Most investors in Velan cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Velan's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Velan's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Velan polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Velan Inc as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Velan Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Velan Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Velan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Velan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Velan Stock Forecast Pattern
Backtest Velan | Velan Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Velan Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Velan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Velan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.82 and 7.97, respectively. We have considered Velan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Velan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Velan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2162 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1876 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0339 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.4417 |
Predictive Modules for Velan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Velan Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Velan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Velan
For every potential investor in Velan, whether a beginner or expert, Velan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Velan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Velan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Velan's price trends.Velan Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Velan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Velan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Velan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Velan Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Velan's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Velan's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Velan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Velan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Velan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Velan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Velan Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Velan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Velan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Velan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting velan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
Variance | 4.21 | |||
Downside Variance | 3.05 | |||
Semi Variance | 1.88 | |||
Expected Short fall | (1.82) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Velan to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Velan Stock analysis
When running Velan's price analysis, check to measure Velan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Velan is operating at the current time. Most of Velan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Velan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Velan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Velan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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