Xinyuan Real Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| XIN Stock | USD 2.71 0.01 0.37% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xinyuan Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 2.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.56. Xinyuan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Xinyuan Real stock prices and determine the direction of Xinyuan Real Estate's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Xinyuan Real's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Xinyuan Real's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Xinyuan Real's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Xinyuan Real fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xinyuan Real to cross-verify your projections. Xinyuan |
Most investors in Xinyuan Real cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Xinyuan Real's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Xinyuan Real's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Xinyuan Real is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Xinyuan Real Estate value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Xinyuan Real Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xinyuan Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 2.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xinyuan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xinyuan Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xinyuan Real Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xinyuan Real | Xinyuan Real Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Xinyuan Real Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xinyuan Real's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xinyuan Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.33 and 4.98, respectively. We have considered Xinyuan Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xinyuan Real stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xinyuan Real stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9819 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0413 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5599 |
Predictive Modules for Xinyuan Real
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xinyuan Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xinyuan Real's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Xinyuan Real
For every potential investor in Xinyuan, whether a beginner or expert, Xinyuan Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xinyuan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xinyuan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xinyuan Real's price trends.Xinyuan Real Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xinyuan Real stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xinyuan Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xinyuan Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xinyuan Real Estate Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Xinyuan Real's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Xinyuan Real's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Xinyuan Real Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xinyuan Real stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xinyuan Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xinyuan Real stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xinyuan Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Xinyuan Real Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xinyuan Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xinyuan Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xinyuan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Xinyuan Real in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Xinyuan Real's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Xinyuan Real options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Xinyuan Real Estate offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Xinyuan Real's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Xinyuan Real Estate Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Xinyuan Real Estate Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xinyuan Real to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Xinyuan Stock analysis
When running Xinyuan Real's price analysis, check to measure Xinyuan Real's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xinyuan Real is operating at the current time. Most of Xinyuan Real's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xinyuan Real's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xinyuan Real's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xinyuan Real to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like | |
| Pair Correlation Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios |
Is Xinyuan Real's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xinyuan Real. If investors know Xinyuan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xinyuan Real listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.927 | Earnings Share (52.52) | Revenue Per Share 176.174 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.909 | Return On Assets 0.0006 |
The market value of Xinyuan Real Estate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xinyuan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xinyuan Real's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xinyuan Real's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xinyuan Real's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xinyuan Real's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xinyuan Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xinyuan Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xinyuan Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.