Exxon Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| XOM Stock | USD 120.56 0.68 0.57% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 120.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.01. Exxon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Exxon stock prices and determine the direction of Exxon Mobil Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Exxon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Exxon's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Exxon's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Exxon fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections. Exxon |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Exxon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Exxon's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Exxon's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Exxon stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Exxon's open interest, investors have to compare it to Exxon's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Exxon is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Exxon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Exxon cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Exxon's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Exxon's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Exxon polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Exxon Mobil Corp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Exxon Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Exxon Mobil Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 120.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Exxon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Exxon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Exxon Stock Forecast Pattern
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Exxon Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Exxon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Exxon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 119.30 and 121.30, respectively. We have considered Exxon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exxon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exxon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.285 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9357 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.0103 |
Predictive Modules for Exxon
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exxon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Exxon
For every potential investor in Exxon, whether a beginner or expert, Exxon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exxon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exxon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exxon's price trends.Exxon Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Exxon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Exxon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Exxon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Exxon Mobil Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Exxon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Exxon's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Exxon Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Exxon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Exxon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Exxon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Exxon Mobil Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 415110.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2166 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 120.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 120.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.9 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.68 |
Exxon Risk Indicators
The analysis of Exxon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Exxon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting exxon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7981 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4458 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9931 | |||
| Variance | 0.9862 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7268 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1987 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Exxon Investors Sentiment
The influence of Exxon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Exxon. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Exxon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exxon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exxon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exxon Mobil Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Exxon's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Exxon's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Exxon's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Exxon.
Exxon Implied Volatility | 29.83 |
Exxon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exxon Mobil Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exxon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exxon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exxon's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Exxon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Exxon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Exxon options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Exxon Mobil Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Exxon's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Exxon's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Exxon Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Exxon to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Exxon Stock analysis
When running Exxon's price analysis, check to measure Exxon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exxon is operating at the current time. Most of Exxon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exxon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exxon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exxon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Exxon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exxon. If investors know Exxon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exxon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.38) | Dividend Share 3.68 | Earnings Share 8.9 | Revenue Per Share 83.488 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of Exxon Mobil Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exxon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exxon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exxon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exxon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exxon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exxon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exxon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exxon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.