YPF SA Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

YPFD Stock  ARS 21,843  73.95  0.34%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of YPF SA D on the next trading day is expected to be 23,468 with a mean absolute deviation of  729.30  and the sum of the absolute errors of 45,217. YPF Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast YPF SA stock prices and determine the direction of YPF SA D's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of YPF SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of YPF SA to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in YPF SA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the YPF SA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets YPF SA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
YPF SA polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for YPF SA D as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

YPF SA Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of YPF SA D on the next trading day is expected to be 23,468 with a mean absolute deviation of 729.30, mean absolute percentage error of 768,688, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45,217.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict YPF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that YPF SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

YPF SA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest YPF SAYPF SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

YPF SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting YPF SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. YPF SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23,465 and 23,471, respectively. We have considered YPF SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21,843
23,465
Downside
23,468
Expected Value
23,471
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of YPF SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent YPF SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria133.5008
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation729.3027
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0366
SAESum of the absolute errors45216.7701
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the YPF SA historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for YPF SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as YPF SA D. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of YPF SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21,76621,76921,772
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20,51320,51623,946
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21,64821,98022,312
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as YPF SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against YPF SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, YPF SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in YPF SA D.

Other Forecasting Options for YPF SA

For every potential investor in YPF, whether a beginner or expert, YPF SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. YPF Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in YPF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying YPF SA's price trends.

YPF SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with YPF SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of YPF SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing YPF SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

YPF SA D Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of YPF SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of YPF SA's current price.

YPF SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how YPF SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading YPF SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying YPF SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify YPF SA D entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

YPF SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of YPF SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in YPF SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ypf stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards YPF SA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, YPF SA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from YPF SA options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of YPF SA to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running YPF SA's price analysis, check to measure YPF SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy YPF SA is operating at the current time. Most of YPF SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of YPF SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move YPF SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of YPF SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between YPF SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if YPF SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, YPF SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.