Shanghai Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

000001
  

 3,405  17.79  0.53%   

Shanghai Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shanghai historical stock prices and determine the direction of Shanghai's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Shanghai historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to fundamental analysis of Shanghai to check your projections.
  
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Most investors in Shanghai cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Shanghai's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Shanghai's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Shanghai is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Shanghai value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Shanghai Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shanghai on the next trading day is expected to be 3,447 with a mean absolute deviation of 27.17, mean absolute percentage error of 1,435, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,657. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shanghai Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shanghai's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shanghai Index Forecast Pattern

Shanghai Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shanghai's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shanghai's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,446 and 3,449, respectively. We have considered Shanghai's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3,405
3,447
Expected Value
3,449
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shanghai index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shanghai index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.3797
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation27.1714
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors1657.4536
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Shanghai. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Shanghai. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Shanghai

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shanghai. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shanghai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Shanghai in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3,4043,4053,407
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2,8252,8273,746
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2,9133,1833,453
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shanghai. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shanghai's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shanghai's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Shanghai.

Other Forecasting Options for Shanghai

For every potential investor in Shanghai, whether a beginner or expert, Shanghai's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shanghai Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shanghai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shanghai's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shanghai index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shanghai could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shanghai by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Shanghai Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shanghai's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shanghai's current price.

Shanghai Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shanghai index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shanghai shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shanghai index market strength indicators, traders can identify Shanghai entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shanghai Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shanghai's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shanghai's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Shanghai stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Shanghai without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please continue to fundamental analysis of Shanghai to check your projections. Note that the Shanghai information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shanghai's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Other Tools for Shanghai Index

When running Shanghai price analysis, check to measure Shanghai's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shanghai is operating at the current time. Most of Shanghai's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shanghai's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shanghai's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shanghai to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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