GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

3LTE
 Stock
  

EUR 24.14  0.66  2.81%   

GRANITESHARES Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL historical stock prices and determine the direction of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to fundamental analysis of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL to check your projections.
  
Most investors in GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 21.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 3.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GRANITESHARES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Stock Forecast Pattern

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.50 and 32.23, respectively. We have considered GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 24.14
21.37
Expected Value
32.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2808
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5362
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1064
SAESum of the absolute errors93.7068
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.0020.8631.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.0015.8626.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL.

Other Forecasting Options for GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL

For every potential investor in GRANITESHARES, whether a beginner or expert, GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GRANITESHARES Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GRANITESHARES. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price trends.

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget CorpUnited Parcel Service
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's current price.

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL Investors Sentiment

The influence of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in GRANITESHARES. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL options trading.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Please continue to fundamental analysis of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL to check your projections. Note that the GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try ETF Directory module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.

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When running GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL price analysis, check to measure GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL is operating at the current time. Most of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GRANITESHARES FINANCIAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.