Genesis Technology Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

6221 Stock  TWD 52.60  0.90  1.68%   
Genesis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genesis Technology historical stock prices and determine the direction of Genesis Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Genesis Technology historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Most investors in Genesis Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genesis Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genesis Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Genesis Technology is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Genesis Technology value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Genesis Technology Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Genesis Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 53.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genesis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genesis Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Genesis Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genesis Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genesis Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4793
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3441
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors20.9907
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Genesis Technology. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Genesis Technology. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Genesis Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genesis Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genesis Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Genesis Technology in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
51.8852.6053.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
46.4647.1857.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Genesis Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Genesis Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Genesis Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Genesis Technology.

Genesis Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genesis Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genesis Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genesis Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Genesis TechnologyHyweb TechnologySyscom Computer EngiSysage TechnologyTatung System TechnoWistron InformationDigital China HoldingsAres International CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Genesis Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Genesis Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genesis Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Genesis Technology stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Genesis Technology without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Please continue to Trending Equities. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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When running Genesis Technology price analysis, check to measure Genesis Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genesis Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Genesis Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genesis Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genesis Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genesis Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Genesis Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Genesis Technology value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genesis Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.