Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 48.83  0.58  1.17%

Alcoa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alcoa Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alcoa Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alcoa Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Alcoa Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alcoa Corp fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections.

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Alcoa Corp Receivables Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 15.23. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 6.37, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 1.16. . Alcoa Corp Weighted Average Shares is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares was at 185.93 Million. The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 1 M, whereas Weighted Average Shares Diluted is forecasted to decline to about 176.2 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-09-24 Alcoa Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alcoa Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Alcoa Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Alcoa Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alcoa Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alcoa Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alcoa Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alcoa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alcoa Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alcoa Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alcoa Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Alcoa Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alcoa Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alcoa Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 51.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40, mean absolute percentage error of 3.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.17. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcoa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcoa Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alcoa Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alcoa Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcoa Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.45 and 55.03, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.83
18th of September 2021
51.24
Expected Value
55.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcoa Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcoa Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3891
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3962
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.035
SAESum of the absolute errors85.1659
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alcoa Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alcoa Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
47.3651.1855.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.6248.4452.26
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0043.7152.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.885.085.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Alcoa Corp

For every potential investor in Alcoa, whether a beginner or expert, Alcoa Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcoa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcoa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcoa Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcoa Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Alcoa Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alcoa Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alcoa Corp's current price.

Alcoa Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcoa Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcoa Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcoa Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcoa Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alcoa Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcoa Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alcoa Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Alcoa Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Alcoa Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alcoa Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alcoa Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alcoa Corp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alcoa Corp and First Majestic Silver. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.