Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 48.83  0.58  1.17%

Alcoa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alcoa Corp historical stock prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Alcoa Corp historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Alcoa Corp naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Alcoa Corp systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alcoa Corp fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections.

Search Stock Forecast 

 
Refresh
Alcoa Corp Receivables Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 15.23. The current year Inventory Turnover is expected to grow to 6.37, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 1.16. . Alcoa Corp Weighted Average Shares is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares was at 185.93 Million. The current year Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is expected to grow to about 1 M, whereas Weighted Average Shares Diluted is forecasted to decline to about 176.2 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-09-24 Alcoa Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alcoa Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Alcoa Corp's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Alcoa Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alcoa Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alcoa Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alcoa Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alcoa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Alcoa Corp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Alcoa Corp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Alcoa Corp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Alcoa Corp simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Alcoa Corp are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Alcoa Corp prices get older.

Alcoa Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 48.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.54. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcoa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcoa Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alcoa CorpAlcoa Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Alcoa Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alcoa Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcoa Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.04 and 52.62, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.83
18th of September 2021
48.83
Expected Value
52.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcoa Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcoa Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1374
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.208
MADMean absolute deviation1.1423
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0281
SAESum of the absolute errors68.54
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Alcoa Corp forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Alcoa Corp observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
47.3651.1855.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.6248.4452.26
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0043.7152.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.885.085.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Other Forecasting Options for Alcoa Corp

For every potential investor in Alcoa, whether a beginner or expert, Alcoa Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcoa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcoa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcoa Corp's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcoa Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Alcoa Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alcoa Corp's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alcoa Corp's current price.

Alcoa Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcoa Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcoa Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcoa Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcoa Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alcoa Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcoa Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Alcoa Corp stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Alcoa Corp Investors Sentiment

The influence of Alcoa Corp's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Alcoa. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - AA

Alcoa Corp Investor Sentiment

Nearly all of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Alcoa Corp. What is your sentiment towards investing in Alcoa Corp? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
Skip

Pair Trading with Alcoa Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alcoa Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alcoa Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alcoa Corp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alcoa Corp and First Majestic Silver. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.