A3 Alternative Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAACX -  USA Fund  

USD 8.06  0.00  0.00%

AAACX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast A3 Alternative historical stock prices and determine the direction of A3 Alternative Credit's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of A3 Alternative historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to fundamental analysis of A3 Alternative to check your projections.

AAACX Mutual Fund Forecast 

 
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Most investors in A3 Alternative cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the A3 Alternative's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets A3 Alternative's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for A3 Alternative is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of A3 Alternative Credit value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

A3 Alternative Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of A3 Alternative Credit on the next trading day is expected to be 8.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.015412, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.57. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAACX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that A3 Alternative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

A3 Alternative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

A3 Alternative Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting A3 Alternative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. A3 Alternative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.81 and 9.62, respectively. We have considered A3 Alternative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.06
19th of January 2022
8.22
Expected Value
9.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of A3 Alternative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent A3 Alternative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9379
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0914
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0103
SAESum of the absolute errors5.5735
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of A3 Alternative Credit. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict A3 Alternative. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for A3 Alternative

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as A3 Alternative Credit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of A3 Alternative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of A3 Alternative in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.248.068.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.508.329.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as A3 Alternative. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against A3 Alternative's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, A3 Alternative's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in A3 Alternative Credit.

Other Forecasting Options for A3 Alternative

For every potential investor in AAACX, whether a beginner or expert, A3 Alternative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAACX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAACX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying A3 Alternative's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with A3 Alternative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of A3 Alternative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing A3 Alternative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

A3 Alternative Credit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of A3 Alternative's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of A3 Alternative's current price.

A3 Alternative Risk Indicators

The analysis of A3 Alternative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in A3 Alternative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting A3 Alternative stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

A3 Alternative Investors Sentiment

The influence of A3 Alternative's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in AAACX. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards A3 Alternative in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, A3 Alternative's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from A3 Alternative options trading.

Current Sentiment - AAACX

A3 Alternative Credit Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unresponsive in their sentiment towards investing in A3 Alternative Credit. What is your sentiment towards investing in A3 Alternative Credit? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Pair Trading with A3 Alternative

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if A3 Alternative position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in A3 Alternative will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

A3 Alternative Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for A3 Alternative and Vanguard Index Trust. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to fundamental analysis of A3 Alternative to check your projections. Note that the A3 Alternative Credit information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other A3 Alternative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between A3 Alternative's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine A3 Alternative value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, A3 Alternative's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.