Horizon Active Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAANX
 Fund
  

USD 11.56  0.23  2.03%   

Horizon Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Horizon Active historical stock prices and determine the direction of Horizon Active Asset's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Horizon Active historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Horizon Active to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Horizon Active cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Horizon Active's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Horizon Active's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Horizon Active is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Horizon Active Asset value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Horizon Active Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Horizon Active Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.028319, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Horizon Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Horizon Active's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Horizon Active Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Horizon ActiveHorizon Active Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Horizon Active Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Horizon Active's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Horizon Active's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.31 and 12.57, respectively. We have considered Horizon Active's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.56
11.44
Expected Value
12.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Horizon Active mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Horizon Active mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5463
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1334
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1377
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Horizon Active Asset. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Horizon Active. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Horizon Active

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Horizon Active Asset. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Horizon Active's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Horizon Active in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.4311.5612.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.6311.7612.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Horizon Active. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Horizon Active's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Horizon Active's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Horizon Active Asset.

Other Forecasting Options for Horizon Active

For every potential investor in Horizon, whether a beginner or expert, Horizon Active's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Horizon Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Horizon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Horizon Active's price trends.

Horizon Active Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Horizon Active mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Horizon Active could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Horizon Active by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Bank Of AmericaAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Horizon Active Asset Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Horizon Active's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Horizon Active's current price.

Horizon Active Risk Indicators

The analysis of Horizon Active's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Horizon Active's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Horizon Active stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Horizon Active without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Idea Optimizer Now

   

Idea Optimizer

Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
All  Next Launch Module

Pair Trading with Horizon Active

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Horizon Active position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Horizon Active will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Horizon Active

+0.8DISWalt Disney Fiscal Year End 9th of November 2022 PairCorr
+0.63JPMJP Morgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
+0.67KOCoca-Cola TrendingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Horizon Active could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Horizon Active when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Horizon Active - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Horizon Active Asset to buy it.
The correlation of Horizon Active is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Horizon Active moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Horizon Active Asset moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Horizon Active can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Horizon Active to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Horizon Active Asset price analysis, check to measure Horizon Active's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Horizon Active is operating at the current time. Most of Horizon Active's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Horizon Active's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Horizon Active's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Horizon Active to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Horizon Active's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Horizon Active value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Horizon Active's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.