HORIZON ACTIVE Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

AAANX
 Fund
  

USD 12.71  0.02  0.16%   

HORIZON Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast HORIZON ACTIVE historical stock prices and determine the direction of HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of HORIZON ACTIVE historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of HORIZON ACTIVE to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in HORIZON ACTIVE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the HORIZON ACTIVE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets HORIZON ACTIVE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through HORIZON ACTIVE price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

HORIZON ACTIVE Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET on the next trading day is expected to be 12.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HORIZON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HORIZON ACTIVE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

HORIZON ACTIVE Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest HORIZON ACTIVEHORIZON ACTIVE Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

HORIZON ACTIVE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting HORIZON ACTIVE's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. HORIZON ACTIVE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.81 and 13.90, respectively. We have considered HORIZON ACTIVE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 12.71
12.36
Expected Value
13.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HORIZON ACTIVE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HORIZON ACTIVE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1694
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3404
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors21.1023
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for HORIZON ACTIVE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of HORIZON ACTIVE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of HORIZON ACTIVE in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.8512.4113.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.7212.2813.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as HORIZON ACTIVE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against HORIZON ACTIVE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, HORIZON ACTIVE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET.

Other Forecasting Options for HORIZON ACTIVE

For every potential investor in HORIZON, whether a beginner or expert, HORIZON ACTIVE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HORIZON Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HORIZON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying HORIZON ACTIVE's price trends.

HORIZON ACTIVE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HORIZON ACTIVE mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HORIZON ACTIVE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HORIZON ACTIVE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
JPMorgan ChaseEverscaleEverestScheid VineyardsBondbloxx ETF TrustGalxeFT Cboe VestSECOM LTDVANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTHAMPLAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of HORIZON ACTIVE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of HORIZON ACTIVE's current price.

HORIZON ACTIVE Risk Indicators

The analysis of HORIZON ACTIVE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HORIZON ACTIVE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting HORIZON ACTIVE stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards HORIZON ACTIVE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, HORIZON ACTIVE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from HORIZON ACTIVE options trading.

Pair Trading with HORIZON ACTIVE

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if HORIZON ACTIVE position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in HORIZON ACTIVE will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with HORIZON ACTIVE

+0.79JPMJPMorgan Chase Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to HORIZON ACTIVE could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace HORIZON ACTIVE when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back HORIZON ACTIVE - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET to buy it.
The correlation of HORIZON ACTIVE is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as HORIZON ACTIVE moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if HORIZON ACTIVE ASSET moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for HORIZON ACTIVE can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of HORIZON ACTIVE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between HORIZON ACTIVE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine HORIZON ACTIVE value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HORIZON ACTIVE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.