American Century Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAAOX Fund  USD 9.83  0.05  0.51%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Century One on the next trading day is expected to be 9.81 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.65. American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Century stock prices and determine the direction of American Century One's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Century's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in American Century cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Century's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Century's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Century is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Century One value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Century Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Century One on the next trading day is expected to be 9.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Century's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Century Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest American CenturyAmerican Century Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

American Century Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Century's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Century's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.46 and 10.15, respectively. We have considered American Century's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.83
9.81
Expected Value
10.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Century mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Century mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.3316
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.027
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0028
SAESum of the absolute errors1.646
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Century One. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Century. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Century

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Century One. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Century's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.449.7810.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.409.7410.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Century. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Century's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Century's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Century One.

Other Forecasting Options for American Century

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Century's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Century's price trends.

American Century Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Century mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Century could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Century by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

American Century One Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Century's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Century's current price.

American Century Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Century mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Century shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Century mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify American Century One entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

American Century Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Century's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Century's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Century in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Century's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Century options trading.

Pair Trading with American Century

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Century position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Century will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Mutual Fund

  0.93STFGX State Farm GrowthPairCorr
  0.88AMDVX Mid Cap ValuePairCorr
  0.91AMEIX Equity Growth FundPairCorr
  0.96AMGIX Income Growth FundPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Century could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Century when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Century - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Century One to buy it.
The correlation of American Century is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Century moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Century One moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Century can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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When running American Century's price analysis, check to measure American Century's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Century is operating at the current time. Most of American Century's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Century's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Century's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Century to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Century's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Century is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Century's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.