DEUTSCHE REAL Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

AAAPX
 Fund
  

USD 11.68  0.04  0.34%   

DEUTSCHE Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DEUTSCHE REAL historical stock prices and determine the direction of DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of DEUTSCHE REAL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of DEUTSCHE REAL to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in DEUTSCHE REAL cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DEUTSCHE REAL's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DEUTSCHE REAL's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for DEUTSCHE REAL is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

DEUTSCHE REAL Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS on the next trading day is expected to be 11.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.026074, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DEUTSCHE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DEUTSCHE REAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DEUTSCHE REAL Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest DEUTSCHE REALDEUTSCHE REAL Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

DEUTSCHE REAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DEUTSCHE REAL's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DEUTSCHE REAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.39 and 12.97, respectively. We have considered DEUTSCHE REAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.68
11.68
Expected Value
12.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DEUTSCHE REAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DEUTSCHE REAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.7879
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0114
MADMean absolute deviation0.1298
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0117
SAESum of the absolute errors7.66
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of DEUTSCHE REAL. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting stock prices into the future

Predictive Modules for DEUTSCHE REAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DEUTSCHE REAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DEUTSCHE REAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.3911.6812.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.2911.5812.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DEUTSCHE REAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DEUTSCHE REAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DEUTSCHE REAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS.

Other Forecasting Options for DEUTSCHE REAL

For every potential investor in DEUTSCHE, whether a beginner or expert, DEUTSCHE REAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DEUTSCHE Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DEUTSCHE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DEUTSCHE REAL's price trends.

DEUTSCHE REAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DEUTSCHE REAL mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DEUTSCHE REAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DEUTSCHE REAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Coca-ColaMitsubishi UFJ FinancialTSLIndocan ResourcesEverscaleSPDR SP HomebuildersEverestScheid VineyardsGalxeGold FieldsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DEUTSCHE REAL's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DEUTSCHE REAL's current price.

DEUTSCHE REAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of DEUTSCHE REAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DEUTSCHE REAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting DEUTSCHE REAL stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DEUTSCHE REAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DEUTSCHE REAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DEUTSCHE REAL options trading.

Pair Trading with DEUTSCHE REAL

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if DEUTSCHE REAL position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in DEUTSCHE REAL will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to DEUTSCHE REAL could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace DEUTSCHE REAL when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back DEUTSCHE REAL - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS to buy it.
The correlation of DEUTSCHE REAL is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as DEUTSCHE REAL moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if DEUTSCHE REAL ASSETS moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for DEUTSCHE REAL can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of DEUTSCHE REAL to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between DEUTSCHE REAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine DEUTSCHE REAL value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DEUTSCHE REAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.