Applied Opt Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| AAOI Stock | USD 11.66 0.32 2.67% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 11.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.88. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Applied Opt stock prices and determine the direction of Applied Opt's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Opt's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Applied Opt's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Applied Opt's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Applied Opt fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections. Applied |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Applied Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applied Opt's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applied Opt's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applied Opt stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applied Opt's open interest, investors have to compare it to Applied Opt's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applied Opt is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applied. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Applied Opt cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Applied Opt's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Applied Opt's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Applied Opt price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Applied Opt Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 11.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 3.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Opt's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Opt Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Opt | Applied Opt Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Opt Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Opt's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Opt's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.93 and 17.84, respectively. We have considered Applied Opt's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Opt stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Opt stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3033 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3587 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0822 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 82.8832 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Opt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Opt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Opt's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Opt
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Opt's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Opt's price trends.Applied Opt Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Opt stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Opt could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Opt by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Opt Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Opt's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Opt's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Opt Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Opt stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Opt shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Opt stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Opt entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Opt Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Opt's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Opt's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.43 | |||
| Variance | 41.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Applied Opt Implied Volatility | 148.56 |
Applied Opt's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Opt stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Opt's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Opt stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Opt's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Applied Opt in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Applied Opt's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Applied Opt options trading.
Pair Trading with Applied Opt
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Applied Opt position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Applied Opt will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Applied Stock
| 0.78 | CPSH | Cps Technologies | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | G | Genpact Limited Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Applied Stock
| 0.66 | PSTG | Pure Storage Financial Report 29th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | FORTY | Formula Systems 1985 | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | ASYS | Amtech Systems Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.53 | NVMI | Nova Financial Report 9th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | KLAC | KLA Tencor Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Applied Opt could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Applied Opt when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Applied Opt - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Applied Opt to buy it.
The correlation of Applied Opt is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Applied Opt moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Applied Opt moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Applied Opt can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Opt guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Applied Stock analysis
When running Applied Opt's price analysis, check to measure Applied Opt's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Opt is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Opt's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Opt's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Opt's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Opt to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Applied Opt's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Opt. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Opt listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.75) | Revenue Per Share 6.813 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets (0.06) | Return On Equity (0.28) |
The market value of Applied Opt is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Opt's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Opt's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Opt's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Opt's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Opt's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Opt is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Opt's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.