AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AB Stock | USD 32.47 0.02 0.06% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of AllianceBernstein Holding LP on the next trading day is expected to be 32.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.11. AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AllianceBernstein stock prices and determine the direction of AllianceBernstein Holding LP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AllianceBernstein's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although AllianceBernstein's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AllianceBernstein's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AllianceBernstein fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AllianceBernstein to cross-verify your projections. AllianceBernstein |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 AllianceBernstein Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AllianceBernstein's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AllianceBernstein's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AllianceBernstein stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AllianceBernstein's open interest, investors have to compare it to AllianceBernstein's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AllianceBernstein is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AllianceBernstein. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in AllianceBernstein cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AllianceBernstein's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AllianceBernstein's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
AllianceBernstein polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for AllianceBernstein Holding LP as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. AllianceBernstein Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of AllianceBernstein Holding LP on the next trading day is expected to be 32.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AllianceBernstein Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AllianceBernstein's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AllianceBernstein Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AllianceBernstein | AllianceBernstein Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AllianceBernstein Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AllianceBernstein's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AllianceBernstein's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.58 and 33.48, respectively. We have considered AllianceBernstein's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AllianceBernstein stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AllianceBernstein stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4432 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3728 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.1146 |
Predictive Modules for AllianceBernstein
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AllianceBernstein. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AllianceBernstein's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AllianceBernstein
For every potential investor in AllianceBernstein, whether a beginner or expert, AllianceBernstein's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AllianceBernstein Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AllianceBernstein. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AllianceBernstein's price trends.View AllianceBernstein Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AllianceBernstein Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AllianceBernstein's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AllianceBernstein's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AllianceBernstein Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AllianceBernstein stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AllianceBernstein shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AllianceBernstein stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AllianceBernstein Holding LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2793.84 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0323 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
AllianceBernstein Risk Indicators
The analysis of AllianceBernstein's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AllianceBernstein's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alliancebernstein stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with AllianceBernstein
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AllianceBernstein position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AllianceBernstein will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with AllianceBernstein Stock
| 0.75 | BK | Bank of New York Financial Report 16th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | CG | Carlyle Group Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | GS | Goldman Sachs Group Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against AllianceBernstein Stock
| 0.41 | WAVS | Western Acquisition | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AllianceBernstein could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AllianceBernstein when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AllianceBernstein - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AllianceBernstein Holding LP to buy it.
The correlation of AllianceBernstein is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AllianceBernstein moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AllianceBernstein moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AllianceBernstein can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AllianceBernstein to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AllianceBernstein information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AllianceBernstein's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for AllianceBernstein Stock analysis
When running AllianceBernstein's price analysis, check to measure AllianceBernstein's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AllianceBernstein is operating at the current time. Most of AllianceBernstein's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AllianceBernstein's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AllianceBernstein's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AllianceBernstein to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. |
Is AllianceBernstein's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AllianceBernstein. If investors know AllianceBernstein will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AllianceBernstein listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.207 | Dividend Share 2.69 | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 2.654 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.46) |
The market value of AllianceBernstein is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AllianceBernstein that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AllianceBernstein's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AllianceBernstein's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AllianceBernstein's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AllianceBernstein's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AllianceBernstein's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AllianceBernstein is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AllianceBernstein's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.